Hmmm? What a curious situation. September should be interesting.
The system is such that it was to be expected that the most liberal bill would come out of the House. Founding fathers designed it that way. Most populist views, left or right, come from the House, "The People's Chamber." The Senate, on the other hand, was to represent the status quo...the establishment. Basically, the Senate represents the sovereignty of the States; the House, the sovereignty of the People.
That coupled to gerrymandering House districts to ensure "safe seats" and the seniority system, almost assures that the more radical base of each party controls their party's leadership in the House.
Nevertheless...President Obama's handling of the situation was less than "excellent." "Excellent?"...Downgrade that to "less than good." If he cannot get a health care reform bill through, I would expect heads to roll in the White House...perhaps starting with his Chief of Staff.
And, two trillion off on the deficit projection? More heads...perhaps his chief of the Domestic Economic Council.
Granted, he has one of the most difficult tasks in recent memory...but running afoul of politics doesn't help. They missed the Town Hallers and Democratic Blue Dogs and were over focused on the Clinton single payer "left" in the House leadership positions.
If you look at each piece of the Obama platform separately,you miss the message. Each is a tactical piece of an overall strategy...namely the rebuilding of the American Economy to restore a strong and prosperous middle class, that saves and pays taxes, rather than spends and acquires debt. That goal, puts him squarely against most of the status quo who have profited off an over-emphasis on the global economy over a generation.
Investors do not invest to create American jobs. They invest for a return on the investment - i.e. to make more money. If the economy is geared toward riding over-valued assets (bubbles) or toward company's yielding the best returns by the utilization of cheap foreign labor...trickle down economics may continue to work...but only for the countries with whom we run large trade deficits.
A Democratic society cannot exist as a nation of a few rich and very many poor. The poor will use their vote to acquire social programs that substitute for what the private sector is not providing them...and the wealthy will be stuck with higher and higher taxes to pay for it. On the other hand, if wealth is spread over the more numerous middle class, then the vote aligns with economic policy...and the middle class shares the tax burden.
Obama's pieces are aimed at an economic restructuring, both to rebuild the American infrastructure and to compete better globally: health care, education and energy independence.
But if loses on Round 1...the rest will be far more difficult.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
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