Grading Obama

Dear Friends and Family:

We're experiencing a rainy day in the midst of a month of sunshine here in Seattle. Seems like an appropriate time to return to this blog.

I've also spent more than a few evenings arguing Obama's case on internet forums. I consider this my "community service." Although I completely understand some of you are NOT Obama fans, I am looking forward to somewhat more positive responses.

OK...grading Obama.

As of the closing days of July 2009, I think I give him something between a B- and a B. Considering that he is probably facing the most difficult times of any President since FDR, that isn't all that bad. Without judging the policies themselves, I grade him down a bit in his post-election movement toward the center. While this was envitable for practical political reasons, the movement IS a departure from the campaign rheotric that stirred the liberal wing of the Party (e.g. ending the wars, prosecuting torture, White House transparency, etc.).

I keep reminding myself, however, of the three major platform planks: energy self-sufficiency, health care and education (more on the economy in a moment). Pleasantly, he does not appear, IMO, to have moved his focus much from these issues. I suspect giving ground elsewhere may, in part, be due to the necessity of lining up conservative and moderate Democratic Congressional votes to push these substantive issues through in the first two years.

Aside from some R&D money and what may be up and coming tax code changes, the mainstay of energy self-sufficiency seems to lie in the cap and trade proposals. The recent G-8 meeting, wherein he appartently received less than overwhelming support from developing nations for similar global cap and trade programs was, unfortunately a set-back for his domestic proposals. I even heard a "clean coal" advocate using the old AFL-CIO slogan regarding "free trade," in effect saying "what the American Energy Industry needs is a Level Playing Field."

Hmmm? Where were these guys when the issue was labor?

The developing countries reluctance on top of our carbon intensive domestic energy producers may put the issue on the Congressional back burner (even though the House has passed its own version already). When we do finally get something, I am beginning to suspect it will include all sorts of waivers and be generally watered down. On the positive side, I think Obama understands what he is taking on and will take what first steps he can politically, with the intent of slowly whittling away at the problem during an economic recovery. So far, he has been the most pragmatic President in my memory.

I think he'll be somewhat firmer on health care (even trading some of his immediate cap and trade desires for some health care gains). His proposal is already somewhat to the right of the Clinton primary proposals and consequently he does not have much "room" to move further right and still hold Democratic support. Further, health care costs are hitting American pocketbooks on a daily basis, whereas cap and trade, although needed, is pretty much assured to raise energy costs over the short term. Aside from the broader economic problems, I would bet (at the moment) health care will be the major accomplishment of 2009-2010.

A few things have already been done in education (Pell Grants, teacher retention via the Stimulus Package, etc.). My own feeling is that any substantive push on education improvement will ultimately involve meeting the teacher's union head-on (standardized testing for BOTH students and teachers). This will require some very fancy footwork and I believe he'll delay big changes in this sector until he has a better track record on other major issues (i.e. basically more power within his own Party).

On the economy front, despite the whinning about earmarks and pork, I am impressed with the way he has linked his core platform issues with use of Stimulus money...i.e. more bang for the buck. On the banks, he side-stepped the trap of "nationalization," and refused to nationalize, even when people as far on the right as Libertarian Alan Greenspan were calling for nationalization. And, adding compensation limits to loan terms was smart and a virtual 100% guarantee that the loans would be repaid as quickly as possible.

Overall, on the economy, I see Obama as using government to encourage the re-direction of private investment. "Change" comes hardest to those who have profited most from the status quo...and it will be an uphill battle, but if he can, through tax policies, grants, R & D funding, etc., make it actually more profitable to private investors to invest in his policies, that will lay the groundwork for a meaningful economic recovery. Tough job...more on this point and foreign policy next time.