This and That

On Blackwater: Since yesterday, Associated Press has been reporting on the Iraqi government's report regarding the September Blackwater incident regarding the death of Iraqi citizens caught up in a Blackwater convoy operation. Blackwater claims its people were responding to an attack. The Iraqi report, based on their own investigation, says this isn't so and is recommending that the U.S. turn over the Blackwater employees involved for possible trial in Iraqi courts; that the families of the 17 Iraqis killed be compensated with a total of $136M, and that Blackwater be out of Iraq in six months. The State Department, which was conducting its own investigation, has turned their investigation over to the FBI. Presumably, there is a third investigation being completed by the U.S. military.

The U.S. investigations have yet to be completed, however, a leak regarding the U.S. military effort pretty much confirms (thus far) the Iraqi government's story.

The curious thing is that although MSNBC, Fox News, AP, NPR, et al have reported the above, both the New York Times and the Washington Post have remained silent and have not reported the story, which is now more than 36 hours old. Why?

Meanwhile, the situation in Iraq apparently continues to deteriorate. The British have announced half of their remaining force will leave by year end, with the probability of a complete pull-out of their remaining 2,500 troops by the end of 2008. I would guess that these remaining 2,500 will basically be a "covering withdrawal force," and be unable to conduct large scale offensive operations from January 2008 on. The British Prime Minister, while not quite claiming "victory," stated "things are calmer." We may expect to see Iranian influence increase in the region.

To the north, the Turkish government has approved across-the-border "reconnaissance-in-force" by Turkish forces in pursuit of PPK Kurdish terrorists, who killed some 14 people in a Turkish village over the weekend. A projection of future events is pretty simple. If the Kurdish regional government in northern Iraq cannot control the PPK, Turkey will move into northern Iraq to do so, while making an "arrangement" with the Iranians to divide the oil resources.

In Baghdad, a number of prominent Iraq politicians announced that they've given up on "reconciliation" between Sunnis and Shites. This basically blows the argument of a surge for stability, needed in turn, for political progress.

Things in the third major area of Iraq (Anbar Province) seem to be remaining relatively calm. The U.S. decision to make peace with Sunni tribal interests in the region appears to be working for the moment. In fact, this shift of position in Anbar, which has NOT been greeted with approval in the central Baghdad government, may be an indication that the best we can hope for is a relatively stable and semi-independent Anbar, with ties to the Saudis. Anbar borders Saudi Arabia and Syria. It is mostly desert and relatively untapped regarding potential oil resources. And, it is predominately Sunni.

"Truth" in this region appears to be a matter of perspective. The Iraqis-in-the-Street appear to be convinced of Blackwater's guilt (right or wrong). Best course for the U.S. is to pay the $136M, get the Blackwater people out, with the promise of a trial in the U.S., and get rid of Blackwater in Iraq (replacing them with U.S. Marines) ASAP. The alternative may be a complete breakdown of the Maliki-U.S. relationship and/or an end to the Maliki government.

What is becoming abundantly clear is that Iraq per se is no more. It was largely a "phony country" created by the British and oil interests following WWI and held together largely by the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein.

Bush's options are running out. It's difficult to see how he can maintain his quest for "victory" through the end of his term in office. Events on the ground are beginning to move too fast.

An air attack on Iran would not change the situation in Iraq, but in all probability lead to increased Iranian infiltration (if not a stronger response), leading in turn to increased U.S. casualties. Further, the Administration has semi-committed to a withdrawal of 5,000+ U.S. troops by year end, thus they will not be available to fill-in for the British withdrawal.

If the U.S. withdraws an additional 50,000 next year, this leaves us with approximately 100,000 troops in-country by the end of 2008, most of whom will be needed in Anbar and the northern Kurish regions, if not simply to protect our new $160M embassy in an increasingly hostile Baghdad.