This and That

The state of denial disease seems to be spreading throughout the Republican Party...and now apparently ranges from Baghdad to a Minneapolis Airport men's room. Only comment on the Larry Craig issue is that there is one obviously very sick man...whatever his gender preferences.

And, who does the Party trot out in defense...ah...Tom DeLay. Well, probably can't blame the Party itself for that, Tom was just using Craig's absurdity to promote his new book.

Prediction: If the Republican Party mainstream moderates and liberals (and, yes, even a few genuine conservatives) cannot get their Party back from the crazy Texas/Neo-Conservative/Fundamentalist Christian Wing that has control, the Party may well end up in the dust bin of history...to coin a phrase.

Bush, who this morning is in Iraq telling the Generals what they are to report to Congress next week, continues to flirt with impeachment, while the mood in the rest of the country (and among the Democratic Congress) seems to be one of "why bother?" The early arrival of the 2008 Presidential Campaign has indirectly hastened his lame duck status, which was confirmed last week by the departure of Gonzales, Rove, Snow, et al and sort of symbolically by the "Craig Affair." In a curious way, impeachment may be Bush's only hope for a positive legacy...i.e. he's impeached, along with Cheney, and the Presidency is assumed by Nancy Pelosi. Actually, I think Nancy would do a pretty good job, but she would certainly give the Nut Wing of the Republican Party some new ammunition.

Otherwise, it's 16.5 months to go and counting. Sixteen months is a very long time in politics. At the moment, I'd guess the odds on impeachment at roughly 1 in 10. And, the LAST thing Democrats would want to do is to be forced into taking responsibility for this mess BEFORE 2008. A "defanged Bush," is the ideal. More resignations, more investigations, a drawn out war, an economy slowly slipping into recession, etc. However, there are two potential "events" that could drive Congress to impeachment - Iran and scandal.

A number of pundits on the left and right have concluded that Bush will not leave office with the Iranians still pursuing nuclear weapons. Assuming the Iranians maintain their cool and simply continue with their nuclear development and avoid offerring any obvious excuse for U.S. action against them, Bush may think he has to go ahead and act without provocation. That, I suspect, would lead to significant resignations within the Administration (e.g. Gates, military, diplomats, et al) and probably demand "dual impeachment" (assuming Cheney agrees with Bush) and a constitutional crisis. [In this case, the original way the founding fathers envisioned the Presidency would be better than the Party system which has evolved. In the "good old days," the person who became Vice President was the one who received the second highest number of votes for the Presidency. Think about it. The minority was represented in the Vice Presidency. There was greater pressure on the President to "stay within bounds" between elections. The Vice President had little to do other than preside over the Senate and wait for serious Presidential mistakes.]

Impeachment might also be demanded due to scandal. I don't foresee this, but don't exclude it. Something could come up that was so "in your face" that Congress simply couldn't get by just ignoring it. Impeachment is essentially a "policial process," insomuch as it includes, in addition to "high crimes and treason," misdemeanors. The latter pretty much leaves the door open on impeachment for ANY politician today.
In Bush's case, I seriously doubt, at this stage in his Presidency, a "misdemeanor" would suffice - i.e. pretty much on the basis of what we would call "politics." Rather, the "scandal" would have to be a felony or treason of major magnitude. While there are a lot of Democrats who believe this, in fact, has occurred (e.g. the 2000 election, wiretapping, torture, energy policy, whatever) I would not think these sufficient to sway the Congressional Republican votes needed for impeachment. It would have to be on the magnitude of a major, proven felony or conspricay to overthrow the U.S. Government...such has calling off the 2008 election and assuming the title of "Chief Decider" for life. Since that is unlikely (unlikely, not impossible), the major cause for impeachment during the next 16.5 months lies in foreign policy and the misuse of military force.

More next time.