One Week and Counting...Literally

Time for an election prediction: Senate - 49 Democrats; 49 Republicans; 2 Independents; House of Representatives - 223 Democrats; 211 Republicans; 1 Independent.

And, since I arrived at this on the basis of a Washington Post internet survey, I failed to make a copy and could probably never repeat that count, so the following is from memory.

In key Senate races, I see the Democrats holding in NJ and winning in Missouri, but losing in Tennessee and Virginia. In NJ, I am betting the Democrat "machine" simply beats the Republican "machine." In Missouri, the Fox ad controversy gives the edge to the Democrats; in Tennessee, the national media gives the Republicans the edge (more on that below); In Virginia, it's the reverse of NJ - i.e. the Republican machine beats the Democratic machine. Democrats also pick-up a couple of seats in the West, winning close races.

As a supporter of Harold Ford, Tennessee was a tough call and revolves around the Republican attack ad seen as "racist" by many Democrats and much of the national media. While, I think Ford himself handled it correctly, the pro-Ford attention given the ad by the national media may turn out sufficient rural vote to give Republicans the edge. If there is one group disliked by rural, red state America more than Democrats, it's the national media. Thus, a backlash to the backlash beats Ford.

Rush Limbaugh gives Missouri to the Democrats (thanks Rush). "Compassionate Conservatism" may have been forgotten along the way by GW, but not by many of his supporters in that same rural red state America.

In the House, I arrived at the Democratic gains on the basis of primarily two major issues: the War in Iraq and Republican scandals. The potential for a larger Democratic wave was off-set by gerrymandering safe Republican districts and the Republican 72 hour turn out machine. In the West, I gave several House races to Democrats in States I felt might be carried by the Democratic Senate races, on the theory of a "Senate Coattail" effect.

Overall, Democratic gains may be capitalizing on an American voter desire to turn away from political polarization and a return to more "moderate" politics; ironic in that this desire may result in greater polarization. In a CSPAN televised discussion of Gerrymandering this morning, there seemed to be a consensus that the Democrats would be more successful in "competitive districts," and the result of the election would be a Republican Congress driven even further to the right, with Democrats winning the battles for the "center." If this is the case, Democrats will have positioned themselves well for 2008, but had best tread carefully through the next two years to hold and build on that advantage. Contrary to recent Republican attacks, there was also a consensus that Nancy Polosi would NOT drive a liberal agenda during the next two years, with this in mind and short of the votes necessary to overcome Presidential vetoes.

Based on all of the above, it would appear that the political events of 2007 and 2008 will be driven by Presidential politics beginning in earnest on November 8th, 2006 and "events."

Do not expect any significant changes on issues such as social security, health care reform, immigration, the dilemmia of the middle class, etc. And, the focus will still be on Iraq. Democrats will need to walk a fine line in trying to promote "disengagement" while avoiding the potential stigma of being branded as the Party who "lost Iraq," which incidently would be a very convenient Republican "exit strategy."