I suspect the Republican "Department for Political Opponent Psychology" (otherwise known as POP) has long had Kerry's number and know exactly what buttons to push.
Kerry's comment regarding "if you don't study hard, you'll wind up in Iraq" was reasonably explained by him as "misspeak." He apparently meant to joke about Bush's lack of academic achievement leading to the decision to go to war in Iraq.
Either way however it comes across as a "flip" remark from a wealthy east coast pointy headed liberal...i.e. the same image that undoubtedly cost Kerry the Presidency. And, as such, of course Republicans jumped right on it. Kerry would be wise to just say..."I misspoke, however if I offended any of military - the best educated military in the history of our country - I certainly apoligize." Period. End of story. Get on with the election. Anything else only prolongs the mistake, takes Democrats away from the closing OFFENSE, and faintly smells of 2008 Presidential positioning prematurely. Geez...
If anyone had any doubts regarding Ms. Harris "mental stability," read today's Washington Post article: "A Campaign Goes South." I never had a lot of sympathy for Ms. Harris, who seemed to me all along as someone with an awful lot of money, but dealing with less than a full deck. The Post article confirms this impression; losing this election is the least of this person's problems and it sounds as if we're getting close to some sort of "intervention." It is a different problem than Foley's, but the Republican "tolerance" seems similarly motivated by money. Did they put Katherine's money ahead of her own health? Hmmm? Another example of Conservative Compassion?
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Wow...I miss a week and look what happens! Your numbers sound about right (maybe a bit optimistic?)...of course two indpendents are Joe Lieberman and self-described Socialist Bernie Sanders. If Joe fulfills his promise to caucus with Dems, that would bode well for Democratic control of Congress. I agree that it doesn't seem that the GOP and Rove have "control" of this election as they did in '04 and they seem to be in desparation mode. Best thing the Dems can do is go positive, sit back, watch the freak show and coast to the finish line with a great GOTV effort. I also never quite understood the argument that candidates for the U.S. House and Senate should focus on local issues, or that these are local races or that the national GOP policies don't matter. Last time I checked, the U.S. House and Senate were federal offices, who legislate on behalf of the federal government. It's the state legislators who focus on local issues. Granted, national policy affects local interests, but isn't there a word for pandering to local interests at the expense of the national interest in the U.S. Congress, i.e., "pork barrelling"?
My prediction:
Dems will take MT, VA, OH, PA and RI, but lose MO and TN (no particular reason for TN, it just seems to optimistic for them to win all the tossups, so I had to choose between TN and VA. They will hold NJ. 49 D; 49 R; 2 I; same as yours I think. House will be 229 D and 206 R.
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